Israel/Gaza

Regional

Global

Diplomatic pressure is mounting on the Israeli government to temporarily halt its offensive in Gaza. With IDF units about to enter Gaza City, it will be extremely difficult for the IDF to rest its momentum. Furthermore, any temporary cessation would likely be ignored by Hamas and supporting militants, thus diminishing any incentive for the IDF to pause its operations.

Reluctance to slow or halt the tempo and pace of kinetic operations will more than likely incite further foreign government protests against the Israeli government, meaning more diplomatic recalls that could impact consular services. Globally, the frequency and intensity of anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian protests are likely to increase.

Meanwhile, signs of impact on the Israeli economy are growing. The tourism and hospitality industry has been hit the hardest, with reports of some hotel chains inching closer towards closure. While the Israeli government has been injecting money into economic sectors, focusing on those in desperate need, the pace of transferring funds has been inconsistent and the amounts have reportedly been inadequate, according to reports.

As the war approaches the one-month marker, there are very limited signs of it ending in the short term. The repercussions are being felt regionally and globally, and this will intensify.

Organisations should be assessing how an escalating and broadening scope of the conflict will impact operations in the region.

We have teams in Tel Aviv capable of deploying throughout Israel. We can provide safe havens, welfare checks, delivery of critical supplies, and secure journey management services, including evacuations.

Israel/Gaza

On Friday evening, 27 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched the first phase of the land operation in the Gaza Strip. The focus was on Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoon and Zeitoun.

Various NGOs, the UN and international media released statements conveying the fact that they lost contact with their personnel on the ground during periods of communications blackouts (including internet and mobile). The blackouts were likely part of the IDFs signal jamming operations to prevent Hamas communications. Geolocated footage indicated that IDF elements crossed into Gaza in at least three locations.

On Saturday, 28 October, the IDF declared that it struck over 150 underground targets in northern Gaza and killed numerous combatants and Hamas leaders. Besides airstrikes, the IDF has also bombarded suspected Hamas positions with artillery fire. 

As of 30 October, the battle focus has been on the Beit Hanoun area in northern Gaza and Zaytoun in eastern Gaza. IDF armoured elements have also entered southern Gaza City. The IDF confirmed that Hamas rockets impacted the southern city of Netivot. No further updates. As of reporting the Hamas leadership reported that IDF tanks retreated from their positions at Salah al-Din Street, which leads into southern Gaza City. There are no updates on the condition of the hostages held by Hamas, Islamic Jiha and conspiring Palestinians in Gaza.

Israel/West Bank

IDF elements raided the city of Jenin in the West Bank, killing at least four people. No further updates. The IDF also raided the Jenin refugee camp, where Hamas fighters were present. IDF arrested “dozens of Hamas members” during the raid.

Israel/Lebanon

The start of the land operation is largely perceived as the trigger that escalates the conflict from a local one to a regional one. In fact, it could push Hezbollah into opening a second front to the north.

On Sunday, 29 October, Hezbollah forces launched rockets from southern Lebanon that impacted deeper (>2-3km) inside Israel. Some rockets targeted a settlement, which marks a significant shift in the targeting acquisition of Hezbollah. Previously, targets were limited to IDF militant installations and positions. Furthermore, Hezbollah reportedly launched a new ground-to-air missile that downed an Israeli drone. If reports are credible, then Hezbollah can reduce IDF air capabilities. Notably, Hezbollah is more capable than Hamas, as it is estimated that it has 150,000 rockets, including some precision-guided. Likewise, its troops have been battle-hardened by 10 years of fighting in Syria on behalf of the Assad regime.

Two key facts hold them back:

Domestic politics, as a large portion of the Lebanese population, would strongly disapprove getting directly involved in the war.

US deterrence, as Washington keeps deploying more military assets and troops in the region, namely naval carrier strike groups, missile defence platforms and air assets.

Regional/Global

Away from the area of the conflict, pro-Palestinian sentiment, anti-Western rhetoric, and manifestation of anti-Semitism intensify.

On 28 October, in Istanbul, President Erdogan addressed a large crowd of over 100,000 supporters, stating that Israel was an occupying force and Hamas was not a terrorist organisation. Additionally, he accused the West of wanting to start a new Crusade, pitting Christians against Muslims. Such rhetoric will resonate throughout the region, creating significant schisms among the states and kingdoms supporting and receiving support from the West. At the grassroots level, Erdogan’s comments are likely to incite demonstrations targeting Western interests, namely diplomatic missions and corporate offices. At the extreme, violent unrest and terrorist violence cannot be ruled out.

Last night, a mob stormed the Makhachkala airport in Russia’s Dagestan region after news came through that a plane from Tel Aviv was about to land. Video footage shows how an angry crowd is chaotically looking for people holding Israeli passports. As a result of the incident, 60 people were arrested.

Israel/Gaza

Global

Relevance and Impact

Israel’s economic outlook is trending slightly downward due to the war, which has placed the economy on pause due to the military mobilisations of available citizens. However, the economy could be further impacted if the war spreads beyond Gaza and protracts beyond six months. The current assessment by the Israeli government is that the Israel military ground invasion could take up to three months or more.

Efforts to build an international coalition to halt financial aid to Hamas will be a major challenge, particularly in the Middle East, where cross-border flows of money are extremely difficult to detect and monitor. Additionally, support for the Palestinian cause has been rising which adds more public pressure on governments, which are navigating through difficult geopolitical and political risk environment vis-à-vis Israel-Gaza War.

Assessment

A negative economic outlook for Israel, and potentially for the broader region, will have an impact on global markets, depending on its protraction and severity of the war. Oil and financial markets are likely to be the most impacted; however, if the war is contained in its current form, then the impact will be ring-fenced to countries with direct trade exposures to Israel and surrounding countries.

The imposition of further sanctions on Hamas’ financial networks will pose broader business risks, namely compliance burdens, on businesses. For organisations with interests in the region, it is advisable to conduct a broad-spectrum assessment of the supply and value chains to identify any sanctions risk exposures.

Israel/Gaza 

Global

Relevance and Impact

Over the monitoring cycle, there has been a steady escalation of threats against foreign interests, namely those of the US. While the IDF remains hyper-focused on Gaza, escalating hostilities along Israel’s northern and eastern frontiers are also gaining more attention. Even to the South, there has been a growing threat coming from Yemen-based Houthis, who have been launching ballistic missiles towards Israel. US naval assets, however, have been instrumental in intercepting these missiles.

Macron is among five other world leaders who have visited Israel to show their support for Israel, including US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, UK Prime Minster Rishi Sunak, Italy Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Greece Prime Minster Kyrakos Mitsotakis. These countries have also experienced politically-charged civil unrest, pitting larger pro-Palestinian supporters against pro-Israel activists. There has also been a surge in hate crimes, targeting both Jewish and Muslim communities.

At the corporate level, several multinational companies have been forced to navigate through this highly-emotive and politically-sensitive war. Unions and consumers have threatened strike action and boycotts, respectively, over companies’ actual and perceived positions on the war. Around 150 companies issued public statements against Hamas; however, this has also garnered negative attention from pro-Palestinian supporters.

Assessment

It is becoming more evident that the Israel-Gaza war is taking on a more international dimension, particularly as the schism between pro-Palestine and pro-Israel supporters widens. This divide will present a high degree of exposure risks to organisations regionally and globally, compelling them to look across the enterprise and identify and address any gaps in risk management against protest, boycott, supply chain, insider threat, and terrorism risks.

Corporations should also factor in the potential longevity of the war and its influence on geopolitical, political, and security risks to the enterprise. For one, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, on 22 October, warned that the military operations in Gaza could last as long as three months.

This is likely a conservative estimation, but it underscores the complexity of executing the ground offensive. However, given the lack of a political solution to the conflict, instability in the Levant and the wider Middle East is set to continue in the six-month outlook.

According to a BBC-Oxford report, the amount of disinformation and misinformation that flooded the internet following Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel has been unprecedented. The report said that numerous amounts of information shared and opinionated online have significantly distorted viewers’ perceptions of the realities of the conflict.

There have been some common examples of widely disseminated “fake” news, including old videos that are presented as recent footage of conflict or protest events. For example, in the context of the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, videos of previous conflicts among the parties are posted, or those of events that took place during the war in Syria.

Secondly, there are genuine videos that are taken out of context and presented, for example, as atrocities carried out by the other side. More recently, images of the US Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, on fire were widely distributed on social media, even by foreign security experts. In actuality, there was no fire inside the compound but the blaze was at a building near the compound.

Thirdly, videos with superimposed logos of reputable organizations can be published in order to appropriate another’s brand reputation. Recent fakes portrayed the BBC and investigative outlet Bellingcat as reporting that the Ukrainian government had supplied weapons to Hamas. In reality, these outlets never reported this.

Fourth, AI-generated fakes have to be considered. While they have not been numerous in the context of the two wars mentioned above, AI-generated videos of Putin and Netanyahu have gone viral online in the past.

Often, it is really hard to discern what is genuine footage and what is being put out there to distort reality and mislead. NSSG offers fact-checked intelligence reports, which combine HUMINT, OSINT, GEOINT as well as an array of other approaches to deliver reliable, actionable information to decision-makers.

The Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital blast that took place in Gaza on Tuesday, 17 October, has heightened geopolitical and security tensions globally. Hamas’ disinformation campaign, comprising of blaming the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), has insighted calls for violence against Israeli interests. While the IDF has publicly shown evidence that the blast was caused by a ‘failed rocket launch’ by Islamic Jihad, this evidence has done little to keep threats against Israel and its allies at bay.

Beyond Gaza, the impact has been resounding in terms of unrest across the region. Pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel have been taking place across the Middle East. Numerous rallies took place in Jordan, Lebanon, Türkiye, Iraq, Egypt and Morocco, among others. These protests can insight violent unrest and related terrorist violence, including mass-casualty events or lone-wolf attack variants, including bladed weapon and vehicle ramming attacks.

In Amman, Jordan's capital, the authorities imposed security closures on several roads to prevent mass public gatherings.

In Lebanon, protesters attempted twice to storm the US Embassy Beirut compound. In response to the escalating threat to US interests, the US Government updated its travel advisory to "do not travel" for Lebanon. Moreover, the evacuation of non-essential embassy personnel and their families is underway.

Also, the West Bank should be monitored for a possible escalation as IDF operations continue in the Palestinian Territories, and there have been dozens of arrests over the past few days. The main trigger for escalation here is still considered as the operation resulting in high casualties, which could lead to a significant deterioration in the security climate.

US President Joe Biden arrived in Israel on Wednesday, 18 October, to show support for Israel and call for a diplomatic resolution to the growing crisis. In response to the hospital blast, President Biden stated during an address that "the other team did it.” The response has generated controversy globally, antagonizing the extreme elements among those with anti-US and anti-Israel sentiments.

Additionally, an IDF land-based invasion of Gaza will certainly generate security, political, and geopolitical blowback, particularly if there are high civilian casualty numbers. In the immediate aftermath of an incursion, negative sentiment against Israel and its perceived facilitators will elevate civil unrest and associate terroristic violence globally.

Situational updates:

Lastly, as far as security in Israel itself is concerned, yesterday's strikes from Gaza increased, while those fired from Lebanon remained constant.

As early as the morning of 19 October, border crossings from Israel to Jordan and Egypt remained open.

NSSG continues to operate on the ground in Israel and Jordan, providing its clients with evacuation and travel management services.

According to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), there is an increasing number of Israeli citizens who have been evacuated from northern and southern Israel, with estimates that around 500,000 people are now internally displaced within Israel.

The IDF has also reported that Hamas has at least 199 Israelis and foreign national as hostages in Gaza. This is a significant increase compared to previous estimates. Hamas also reportedly said that it would release ‘foreign national unconditionally’ when ‘field conditions are right.’ This is somewhat of a contradiction, highlighting ambiguity but also serving as a delay tactic in light of the upcoming ground incursion. It is also likely meant as a message to foreign governments in order for them to alleviate pressure on Tel Aviv.

While freeing the hostages is one of Israel’s top concerns, particularly as the IDF prepares for its ground invasion. It should also be noted that the last time Hamas held an Israeli hostage (Gilad Shalit), he was held captive for five year (2006-2011). By keeping the hostages as human shields, Hamas is creating more time and space to prepare for the invasion. This likely means establishing points for sabotage and booby traps throughout the Gaza urban environment and elsewhere. The IDF will undoubtedly deploy state-of-the-art technology, including uncrewed ground vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles, to root out traps.

IDF elements will enter an environment with a decimated infrastructure, concentrated civilian non-combatants and the hostages, making the operations extremely difficult. There are likely going to be high civilian casualties, including hostages.

NSSG continues to operate on the ground in Israel and Jordan, providing its clients with evacuation and travel management services.

The confrontation between Israel and Hamas continues, while the situation is becoming increasingly tense along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon where exchanges of fire have become more frequent during the weekend. The UN forces in Lebanon reported that a rocket struck their base in the country, without making victims. In Syria, there are reports on Iranian forces moving toward the border with Israel, including troops tasked with missile operations. Jake Sullivan, US National Security adviser, stated that the White House is worried about a possible direct involvement of Iran.

In the south, rocket fire from Gaza towards Israel remains intense. Air alarms keep going off, including in Tel Aviv and the Ben Gurion airport area, and in Jerusalem in the area near the Knesset. Notably, Hamas released a video of how it unearths EU-built water pipes and turns them into missiles. Israeli airstrikes against the Gaza Strip continue to come in waves and focus primarily on the north of the territory. However, strikes target the South too, as it is believed that most commanders are located in that area, while low-level fighters are in the North.

Lastly, evacuation efforts continue. On Saturday, the Israeli National Security Council increased its travel warning for Jordan and called to “avoid all non-essential travel”. The US evacuates some of its citizens, and immediate family members from Haifa to Cyprus by ship, today, Monday, 16 October. A variety of airlines continue operating, including Air France, Azimuth, Cyprus Airways, El Al, Etihad, Fly Dubai, Flyone, Georgian Airways, Hainan Airlines, Israir, Red Wings, Tarom, etc.

NSSG continues to operate on the ground in both Israel and Jordan, providing evacuation and travel management services to its clients. Contact us at support@nssg.global to find out more about our services.

On 15 October, fighting along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon intensified, with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) helicopters striking targets in Lebanon designated as “military infrastructure.” IDF also confirmed that Israeli troops engaged in limited combat against enemies who had attacked them near the Lebanon border, especially near the city of Kiryat Shmon. Also in northern Israel, the evacuation of residents of the town of Metula continues today.

On the western front, in Gaza, Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued to attack targets in Gaza, in preparation of what IAF commander Tomer Bar says would be a ground intervention of the IDF troops. According to IDF leaders, the ground operation will have three main goals: capturing Gaza city, eliminating the leadership of Hamas, and destroying the underground tunnels used by Hamas for their operations against Israel. According to local sources, this last objective will be very difficult to achieve, given that the total length of these tunnels is allegedly greater than the length of the London underground.

Due to fears that the Israel-Hamas conflict could escalate into a regional conflagration, the US announced it would send the USS Eisenhower carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean to join the USS Gerald R. Ford already located in the region. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is meanwhile continuing his diplomatic tour in the Middle East to seek assurance that Arab states in the region, including Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, remain neutral.

The situation remains extremely tense with the airport in Tel Aviv experiencing periods in which it was forced to postpone departures and landings for limited periods of time due to attacks in its vicinity. Airlines still flying to Tel Aviv are advised to carry extra fuel as delays are expected. NSSG continues operating on the ground in Israel and Jordan, providing its clients with evacuation and travel management services.

On Saturday, 14 October, Hamas continued firing rockets into Israel. Most strikes target the south of the country but occasionally, air raid sirens go off in Tel Aviv too, including the area of Ben Gurion airport. Interception rates by the Iron Dome system are very high, but over the past 24 hours, various civilians were injured, and property was damaged.

Likewise, the situation is tense in the north of Israel, as the Defence Forces strike targets in Lebanon in response to overland incursions by Hezbollah fighters. In attacks targeting the south of Lebanon, a group of journalists came under fire, and a Reuters reporter was killed. Thus, the situation is growing increasingly tense in Lebanon, too, where various Hezbollah leaders claimed to be ready to intervene alongside Hamas.

Late on Friday, 13 October, amid continuing air strikes, Israeli forces carried out land incursions into the Gaza Strip, which prompted various media outlets to announce that a major offensive had started. 

Nevertheless, such raids remained localised, as Israeli spokespeople clarified that their goal was to retrieve those abducted during the initial incursion by Hamas. On Saturday, Hamas commander Ali Qadi, who led the 7 October attacks on Israel, was reportedly “eliminated.”

The Gaza Strip remains under siege, with resources running increasingly thin. Today, thousands of Gaza residents began relocating towards the south of the territory, as Israel announced evacuation corridors for civilians from 10:00 to 16:00 pm local time.

Regarding evacuations out of Israel, the National Security Council increased its travel warning for Jordan and called to “avoid all non-essential travel”. NSSG continues to operate on the ground in both Israel and Jordan, providing evacuation and travel management services to its clients.